Unanimidad en el optimismo bursátil respecto a 2014
Recojo literalmente un párrafo de un informe de Axa que me ha parecido significativo:
Assuming that the fiscal tightening does not exceed 1% of GDP and that the Fed does not allow bond yields to rise too fast or too high (our long held end of 2014 target is 3.5% for 10Y Treasuries), the US economy should accelerate significantly, allowing equity markets to absorb the Fed’s reduction of liquidity injections. Since the other powerhouse of the world, China, is unlikely to slow significantly –Chinese leaders have made it clear that they won’t tolerate growth below 7%– the global economy should accelerate, allowing the ‘global healing’ process to advance further and global trade to recover neatly. This will be good news for the first exporter in the world, the European Union, where several economies, starting with the UK, Spain and Ireland, have already surprised on the upside. Will it be sufficient to check the deflationist trend that has emerged clearly enough to be noticed by the ECB? Probably not. Although a more reactive ECB may surprise markets by easing further, conventionally or unconventionally, the key issue will be the restructuring of the banking system, a pre-condition for a credit led recovery. This will be a difficult political battle, but there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic: after all, willingly or not, politicians burnt the bridges behind them when, last year, they took the brave decision to move toward a banking union.
La conclusión parece clara: optimismo respecto a 2014. La cuestión es ¿ese optimismo ya está en las cotizaciones bursátiles, o queda espacio para una subida todavía? Yo creo que aún queda espacio. Al menos durante todo 2014.